As Russia’s war in Ukraine enters its third year, is there a stalemate on the ground given that positions haven’t changed very much? If that is the case, does it suggest President Putin’s original plan to capture Kyiv followed by regime change, is going nowhere?
These and other questions are being debated in diplomatic and academic circles and there’s no consensus on what could happen. But yes, Russia has heavily mined the forward lines of the areas in Ukraine it controls, which does limit their freedom of manoeuvre (and doesn’t help the Ukrainians either).
Counting the cost
Equally, any move on Kyiv will be costly, in men and equipment for the Russians. The Ukrainians can be expected to defend their capital to the last man last round, and while one does not hear much from the Russians about their casualties, these have been heavy.
“Russia has suffered tremendous losses, unthinkable losses,” said a cross-section of academics based in Western Europe, whom Stratnews Global spoke to. “An estimate of 66,000 killed would be on the low side,” they say while pointing to other estimates of 100,000 dead and 300,000 injured.
Ukraine’s President Zelenskyy says they’ve lost 30,000 men, but other estimates say at least 50,000 are missing and another 60,000 have died in hospital or are disabled for life.
Even so, the sense is Ukraine has had “remarkable success” on the battlefield, refusing to go under, which is what Europe and the US expected when Russian forces invaded two years ago. But Kyiv has no resources to fight. It has no domestic defence industry of its own. Add to that, its economy is on survival mode, much of its arable land is poisoned and unusable. Ukraine is on “life support”, courtesy the West.
Ukraine’s bleak horizon
Recent developments have underscored the view that Ukraine’s prospects are not rosy, is the growing opinion among some academics in Europe. The sacking of army chief Gen. Valerii Zalyzhnyi a few weeks ago suggests disunity at the top, perhaps even discord over the way forward. Zelenskyy’s five-year term ends next month but elections are hardly possible given the Russians are in occupation of major portions of the east and south.
Zelenskyy was quoted as telling The Washington Post in May last year that with martial law in place, “We cannot have elections. If there is no martial law then there will be. After martial law ends, I think in 90 days, elections are held.”
How does Zelenskyy continue in office without a legal mandate, which has to be through elections. Various ideas have been thrown up, including that the speaker of parliament take over. But nothing concrete has emerged. In all likelihood, he will remain president even past March.
Putin’s prospects
Putin retains many advantages given a sophisticated indigenous defence industrial base. Despite heavy losses in men, youth from the poorer regions of Russia are reportedly queuing up recruitment into the armed forces. If killed their families receive huge compensation, which has led to a property boom in certain parts of the country. For the same reason, it has also reportedly led to an uptick in weddings.
It’s not clear how long Putin can keep up with the compensation payments. The sense is from about 18 months to two years. There are no answers for what happens after that. Some speculate that he could move to strike at Europe directly, perhaps by invading Lithuania. But the cost of another adventure could be impossible for the Russian state to bear. It could even force a revolt against Putin with perhaps some kind of collective leadership taking over. This has happened in Russia in the past after Nikita Khrushchev was ousted in Oct. 1964.
Some studies suggest at least 15% of the population has no problem with the Ukraine war. Rather, many are upset over their cities and towns close to the Ukrainian border being hit and would like Putin to sort them out using whatever means possible. Others prefer to stay quiet rather than risk a jail sentence for criticising Putin or the war.
For most others, the war is something being fought far away. It does not impact their daily lives, besides the economy is doing well and could easily grow up to 2.5 per cent this year.
The other point is people don’t appear to have a good impression of the West. Many people may even harbour a “huge bitterness” towards the West since it has sanctioned Russia. It leaves them more united. As the breach between Russia and Europe deepens, Moscow has no choice but to look eastward, towards China.
Could a Trump presidency change that? It could but some diplomats believe it’s also possible that he could be persuaded by the military-intelligence establishment to continue with funding the Ukrainians. At perhaps $20 billion a year, such limited funding would ensure the US military industrial complex is kept busy and profitable while keeping the Russians bogged down.
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