NEW DELHI: With less than five months to go before India takes over the G20 presidency on December 1, a question doing the rounds is whether the issues that arose during Indonesia’s presidency could “spill over”. Recall that within two months of Indonesia taking over the G20 presidency last year, the Ukraine war exploded on the world driving up energy prices, creating food insecurity and sparking diplomatic tensions, none of which seem anywhere near a solution.
Allied to this is the other question: whether the politically influential and economically powerful U.S. and its Western allies will turn the economic agenda of the G20 on its head to focus on the Ukraine war and bad boy Russia.
“There are 160 to 190 sectoral meetings on a range of issues to be held from December onwards,” sources told StratNewsGlobal, “and the point is whether those deliberations could fall casualty to the Western need to punish Russia for invading Ukraine.”
There is a view that Washington and some European capitals may be seeking a “logical conclusion” to the war, therefore the continued supply of military hardware to Ukraine resulting in a war of attrition where Russia is made to bleed in terms of men, equipment and economically too. If that is the mindset and intention, it means the war could continue with consequent impact on the global economy and there’s little doubt Russia is retaliating, inflicting pain on Europe which is heavily dependent on gas from there.
Russia has already weaponized gas exports, cutting off supplies to a dozen European countries so far. More cuts are expected in the flow of gas from the Nord Stream 1 pipeline, which could impact Germany hard, more so with winter not far ahead.
Governments in Spain and Portugal, although less dependent on Russian gas, are not inclined to impose energy cuts on their people. There is now a move within the EU to allow member states the freedom to decide when to impose cuts on Russian gas supplies.
While India is closely watching how this plays out, there is also a sense that the crisis over Ukraine may be “overstated” in the context of the G20.
“This is a difficult period geopolitically and geo-economically,” said an official “and the G20 represents economically powerful interests. The U.S. and Europe will want a constructive path laid out at a time when the global economy is in trouble and there are growing recession fears in the U.S.”
India remains fairly confident that by focusing on outcomes in key areas such as tackling inflation, high interest rates, the energy and food crisis, it can ensure a successful G20 summit while laying the ground for growth and sustainability.
India is also clear that it wants to try and bridge the gap between the developed and developing worlds and build consensus. While India is seen in many quarters as the voice of the developing world, it has some powerful allies in Brazil, South Africa and Mexico that are vocal and influential in their own right.
“We can work with them,” sources said “but India is not seeking to build a coalition of developing countries against the rich. The idea is to take everybody along. Engage all.”
They underscored another point. “India is well placed as an invitee to the G7 meetings, to bridge the north-south divide, and our development experience is of relevance to poor and developing societies.”
Keeping in mind that this is India’s first G20 presidency, there is a high level of attention with internal meetings and discussions and detailed presentations. While the focus would be on financial and economic issues, humanitarian concerns would also be taken into account given the toll left by the pandemic and the current crisis around food security.
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