NEW DELHI: The U.S.-Russia negotiations over Ukraine are being closely watched from Delhi. India cannot influence the direction of the talks; nevertheless, it has very high stakes in a successful resolution. If the two sides are able to strike an agreement, from Delhi’s point of view there are two important fallouts: Russia can step back from China’s embrace given the end of U.S. sanctions. There are other strategic gains for Moscow but for India, any dilution of Russia’s China connection is a huge plus.
For America, it means President Joe Biden can focus on the external challenge posed by China, which means focus on the Indo-Pacific. The U.S. National Security Council has made that clear and unambiguous. Senior Director Laura Rosenberger underscored that while competition with China will be particularly pronounced in the Indo-Pacific, it is actually playing out globally, adding that “We have taken a number of steps to deepen the partnership with India… India’s role is quite critical”.
Biden, while making allowances for cooperating with China in areas like climate change, has worked to strengthen cooperation with friends and partners on China, particularly through the Quad. As some Indian diplomats point out, China is Washington’s main concern and it is in U.S. interest to see the Quad grow. Witness the new timetable of high level in person summits with Japan playing host this year and India the next (last year there were two meetings, one virtual and the other in person).
However, India does not see the Quad’s role as directed solely at China. Indian diplomats say no security discussions have taken place in the Quad (although Quad military forces exercise regularly and security figures in bilateral including 2+2 formats).
India sees the Quad in much broader terms, welcoming the dialogue at various levels (from leadership summit to foreign ministers); India particularly welcomes the working groups on infrastructure (where some discussions have already taken place), on vaccines and the 100 STEM (Science Tech Engineering Mathematics) fellowships announced by Biden to be divided equally among the Quad members.
The Quad gives India flexibility in foreign policy, allowing it to build closer strategic ties with the U.S., Japan and Australia, all of which see China as their main threat. At the same time, the Quad agenda with the focus on vaccines and so on sends the opposite signal to Beijing.
India has no issues with AUKUS (Australia-U.S.-UK), seeing it as a group born with the limited aim of providing nuclear-powered submarines to Australia (that will in turn give the Chinese more to worry about). It is also seen as anchoring Australia firmly in the Western camp.
There is one issue: India’s definition of the Indo-Pacific extends from the western seaboard of the U.S. to the east coast of Africa. The U.S. is fixated on the Pacific, not so much on the vast stretch of the Indian Ocean. As China’s profile in India’s littoral seas increases, a U.S. presence would be the perfect balance.
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