NEW DELHI: Ties between Turkey and the U.S., strained for many years over multiple issues, got a reprieve when a U.S. court dismissed a case against the Turkish state-owned Halkbank, which was accused of helping Iran evade American sanctions. But the reprieve may be temporary. The recent killing of 13 Turkish nationals by the Kurdistan Workers Party (PKK) in northern Iraq, and what is seen in Istanbul as Washington’s conditional response, has set relations on edge.
“If reports of the death of Turkish civilians at the hands of the PKK, a designated terrorist organisation, are confirmed, we condemn this action in the strongest possible terms,” said the U.S. State Department. President Erdogan summoned the American ambassador to Turkey and senior Turkish officials expressed their anger on Twitter. What is unusual is that Turkey, a close Nato ally, chose to mention the U.S. by name.
“PKK executes 13 civilian captives in a cave in #Gara, Iraq. It attacks Turkish & Iraqi security forces & civilians. It continues its terrorist attacks in northern Syria. The world is silent. This silence is a shameful act of complicity. But we will not remain silent,” tweeted Turkey’s presidential spokesperson Ibrahim Kalın in English.
This was unusual as most of the tweets of Turkish top officials and politicians are only in Turkish. Erdogan himself followed up with a televised address and though he spoke in Turkish as per the norm, his address was subtitled in English, a departure from normal practice.
Though U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken subsequently reassured Ankara that Washington blames the Kurdistan Workers Party (PKK) for the execution of 13 kidnapped Turks, the fact is that the U.S. and even some European allies such as France continue to offer tacit support to the PKK which is fighting the Islamic State in Syria.
While Turkey has no problem with fighting the IS, the fact that militias of the PKK – one of the factions – continue to be armed by the U.S., is a big no for them. This is why Turkey, despite being a staunch NATO ally is drifting to Moscow. Erdogan and Putin share a warm relationship after having overcome the downing of a Russian plane by Turkey in 2015. It hasn’t helped that Turkey is facing U.S. sanctions for buying Russian S-400 and Biden’s continued focus on “human rights” which he believes Turkey has violated in Syria ensures rapprochement seems a far cry.
But the bitterness runs further. Opinion polls within Turkey believe that the CIA was part of an orchestrated coup in 2016 where part of the Turkish army tried to unseat President Erdogan. Turkey has blamed Fethullah Gullen, a Muslim cleric based in the U.S. and has demanded his extradition, which the U.S. has refused. This has fuelled suspicion despite Washington claiming it was not involved in the 2016 coup.
“The United States had no involvement in the 2016 attempted coup in Turkey and promptly condemned it. Recent assertions to the contrary made by senior Turkish officials are wholly false. These remarks and other unfounded and irresponsible claims of U.S. responsibility for events in Turkey are inconsistent with Turkey’s status as a NATO Ally and strategic partner of the United States,” said the U.S. State Department in a statement then.
The big question is does it matter? Yes. The growing Russia, Iran, Turkey axis is edging out Washington from Syria and Turkey’s unstinting support for Iran – despite being a staunch Nato ally–should make Washington stop and consider. Turkey is prepared to shut down the Incirlik airbase which houses an estimated 50 U.S. nuclear warheads and has long threatened to develop its own which the U.S. believes could threaten Europe’s security. Already tensions are underway with Greece and Cyprus in the eastern Mediterranean, an area rich in natural gas which Turkey claims as its own.
The biggest ongoing threat is that of refugees. Erdogan routinely threatens to release over three million Syrian refugees who have taken refuge in Turkey due to the ongoing civil war into Europe. The EU and Turkey had struck a deal with the former paying a reported $6 billion to Ankara to ensure that they do not enter Europe, a deal which so far has remained in place. But any time any criticism comes up of his policies in Syria or elsewhere, Erdogan threatens to release the refugees into Europe, something it is anxious to avoid at any cost.
U.S. President Joe Biden has made “human rights” a priority and he is unhappy with both Saudi Arabia and Turkey. But while Saudi Arabia’s Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman is looking to clean up his act, Erdogan so far has shown no intention of doing so. In fact, his overtures to the EU suggests that despite Biden’s displeasure he is willing to carve his own path and policies.
Given Turkey’s strategic location, its heavy involvement in the region – it is militarily involved in Syria, Libya and Iraq – the increasing moves towards an alternative alliance – coupled with Erdogan’s own personal ambitions suggests the U.S., Europe, Saudi Arabia (and even India) must watch the situation closely and consider counter-measures. While no real threat at the moment, Erdogan’s “muscular diplomacy” could soon become a big concern for all.
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