Home Premium Biden’s Yemen Moves: Message For Gulf Allies, Outreach To Iran

Biden’s Yemen Moves: Message For Gulf Allies, Outreach To Iran

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NEW DELHI: President Joe Biden may not be making the Saudis, or more particularly Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman (MBS), happy at the moment. His promise to release a report on the Saudi role in the murder of journalist and dissident Jamal Khashoggi, and the freeze on arms sales to Riyadh (and Abu Dhabi) last week were warning signals but to his relief, Biden has given priority to Yemen.

“This war has to end,” he said, “And to underscore our commitment, we’re ending all American support for offensive operations in the war in Yemen, including relevant arm sales.”

The Saudis were quick to respond. In a series of Tweets, Saudi Deputy Minister for Defence, Prince Khalid bin Salman stated. “We welcome the appointment of Mr. Timothy Lenderking as special U.S envoy for Yemen. We look forward to continue working with our American partners to alleviate the humanitarian situation and find a solution to the Yemen crisis, and ensure peace and stability in brotherly Yemen.”

But are the Saudis really that upset? Perhaps not. When MBS entered the civil war in Yemen in 2015, he expected it to be a short conflict, certainly not the over five-year-long slog it turned out with no end in sight. MBS is certainly desperate for an out and the US is desperate to end its links with what the UN has described as the “world’s worst humanitarian disaster,” perpetuated by Obama-era arms sales to the Saudis.

“The country is now on the brink of what could be the world’s worst famine in over 100 years. More than half the population – 14 million women, men and children — are a risk of famine,” warned the UN Foundation, a charitable organisation that supports the UN and its activities.

The president’s address with its focus on “Diplomacy First”, thus could be seen as an out for both Washington and Riyadh. But by no means does it even begin to stop one of most complicated civil conflicts in the region. Plus, Yemen’s fate indirectly depends very much on how Washington’s relations with Tehran progress. Biden’s removal of the terrorist tag on Yemen’s Iran-backed Houthi rebels is seen as one way of reaching out to Tehran. But the latter wants more, notably an end to the “land, sea and air blockade” of Yemen. The impatient Houthis say nothing has moved on the ground. So these are early days and one expects that the US envoy to Yemen Timothy Lenderking, will ensure things move forward but to what end is not clear.

The Biden administration’s focus on Yemen reflects its need to manage the Saudi-Iranian proxy war, and that other major concern, the war on terror. The arrest of Al Qaeda leader Khalid Batarfi in Ghayda -a city in southwest Yemen – shows the sway that Al-Qaeda and ISIS militants have in the south of Yemen, which directly threatens Saudi Arabia.

It explains Biden’s remarks on the need to secure Riyadh. “Saudi Arabia faces missile attacks, UAV strikes, and other threats from Iranian-supplied forces in multiple countries. We’re going to continue to support and help Saudi Arabia defend its sovereignty and its territorial integrity and its people.”

Biden’s statement seems to suggest that while the US may lower its support for the Saudi-led war in Yemen, it may be some time before its military role ceases entirely. According to a study conducted by a UK-based watchdog Airwars, last year the US conducted “190 armed actions, mostly airstrikes on Yemen since President Trump took office in 2017.” It concluded that 86 people died from these strikes.

US policy will be influenced by the views of its Gulf allies. Yemen has at least two strategically located ports, Aden at the mouth of the Red Sea, and Al-Hodeidah bang in the middle of the Bab el-Mandeb strait, has traditionally been the focus of the power games between Saudi Arabia and the UAE. The latter hopes to control both ports, which explains its backing of the Southern Transitional Council that is fighting both the Saudi-backed Yemeni army, and the Iran-backed Houthis. Then again, the prospect of a united republican Yemen on Saudi Arabia’s southern border is unlikely to please Riyadh (or for that matter Abu Dhabi).

So, despite Biden’s public commitments, neither the Saudis nor the UAE can be expected to stop meddling in Yemen, which is far too important to be left alone. So expect the war to drag on for some more time.

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