NEW DELHI: Amid the often frenzied diplomatic to and fro over Afghanistan, last week’s gathering in Delhi of security czars from seven countries, including Russia, Iran and the five Central Asian states, had a distinct flavour. Driven by Russia and anchored by India, it sent multiple messages to the region and beyond: that while Pakistan may be holding the cards now in the context of the Taliban running Kabul, the Afghan Great Game has always allowed space for regional players with interests to safeguard and their own cards to play.
Sources told StratNewsGlobal that while Pakistan’s non-attendance was expected and factored in, there was expectation (or maybe hope) that China would turn up. In fact, China was subdued in reacting to its ‘Iron Brother’s’ decision not to participate. Sources indicated that the Chinese had conveyed to some of the other participating countries that came to Delhi, they would not mind being part of the conclave.
But the extreme stand taken by Pakistan had left it isolated and Beijing had to throw its ally a lifeline. At one point, there were reports that China would attend virtually but that did not happen. Clearly, Beijing could not afford to leave its ally in the lurch.
The fact that the security chiefs of all the five Central Asian states turned up in Delhi may have been galling for Islamabad. The thinking may have been that not all the ‘stans’ would turn up, little realizing that the Taliban victory has only deepened the security dilemmas for three frontline states: Turkmenistan, Uzbekistan and Tajikistan. Two others that do not share borders with Afghanistan, Kyrgyzstan and Kazakhstan, also sent their security chiefs, a pointed reminder to Islamabad that they felt no less vulnerable.
It has been noted by observers that in the two previous editions of the same group’s meetings held in Iran in 2018 and 2019, there was never 100 per cent attendance from the Central Asian Republics. The Delhi meeting in that sense was the first ‘full-fledged’ meeting attended by all the top security czars in the region.
There was another factor: Russia, which saw the Delhi conclave as an opportunity to reassert its position as the main power in Central Asia. That position has been under challenge from China, which has used its powerful economy to draw the ‘stans’ into its orbit. For the record, while China’s economy is a draw, Moscow’s influence remains undiminished, for now.
The ‘stans’ have also enjoyed a good rapport with Delhi, preferring its non-sectarian approach, its status as a mid-level technological power and its ability to balance between two powerful capitals (Moscow & Washington DC) while keeping a third one (Beijing) at bay.
The mistake the Pakistan made was in seeking to reduce the conclave to another India-Pakistan akhara, overlooking the concerns generated by the role they played in the Taliban rise to power in Afghanistan. Call this hubris or the familiar Pakistani tendency to overreach, it also showed Islamabad as petty and small-minded. By allowing its enmity with India to trump regional security, Pakistan may be seen with some derision in the region.
Finally, credit to India’s National Security Adviser Ajit Doval, whose professionalism and careful focus on building personal equations with leaders like Nikolai Patrushev has paid off. To those who do not see anything new in the Delhi Declaration, do note that the security establishments all over the world prize confidentiality. We may never know what specific conclusions were drawn at the conclave nor what measures will be taken jointly or otherwise with reference to Afghanistan. But the Taliban and Pakistan are on notice that others in the region have the capacity and willingness to scale up the Afghan Game.
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