NEW DELHI: Here’s the issue with India-Russia relations: since much of it is tied to defence which is largely under the radar and, therefore, cannot be talked about openly or in any great detail, an impression may gain ground that all’s not well.
“This is far from the case,” says P.S. Raghavan, former ambassador to Russia and head of the National Security Advisory Board (NSAB), arguing that the “gloom and doom narrative of the Indian media vis a vis Delhi and Moscow doesn’t help either. All bilateral relations oscillate but in the case of India and Russia, where the defence relationship is so deeply enmeshed, this does not happen.”
He pointed out that Russia stood up for us and told China that it would supply the S400 missile defence system to India, “which is a dynamic not noticed in our country”. The Chinese media had urged Moscow not to supply arms to Beijing or Delhi when the standoff in Ladakh was on but Russia said it would fast-track it. That did create a buzz, stoking speculation that the S400 would go on display at next year’s Republic Day parade. But that’s on the lighter side.
Russia’s stand on Kashmir has been another boost for India. It would not support Pakistan’s move (aided by China) for an in-camera discussion on Kashmir in the UN Security Council. And India’s concerns over possible Russian arms supplies to Pakistan have been allayed.
“I think the trigger was the Sochi Summit in 2018 with Putin and Modi finding some chemistry,” says Nandan Unnikrishnan, former journalist and Russia scholar at the Observer Research Foundation. “Mutual assurances were given, with Putin reportedly telling Modi that there were no plans to sell arms to Pakistan and I believe in our official conversations we don’t raise it.”
Putin may have even reassured Modi he was not in Xi Jinping’s pocket, with the former conveying a similar assurance about ties with the United States. It partly explains the decision to buy the S400 and the reported lease of a second nuclear submarine from Russia. The lease on the Akula sub currently operated by the Indian Navy runs out in about two years, so the timing makes sense. Important to note that the U.S. has no system equivalent to the S400, nor do its laws allow lease of strategic platforms such as nuclear submarines to other countries.
“We have been moving to source an increasing number of weapon systems from the U.S.,” Raghavan acknowledged, “but if the Americans lean on us when we buy Russian equipment, it only weakens us. The fact is some weapon systems are better for specific conditions and there is a kind of appropriateness of Russian weaponry when you consider terrain and warfare conditions. If we delink from Russia, what happens to all that legacy equipment? Dialogue on these lines with the U.S. has been reasonably successful so far.”
Likewise, India has been able to convince Russia that it needs the U.S. to balance an aggressive China. South Block also understands the flip side, Russia’s need for China to balance off the United States.
“The point is the movement of three bodies is never easy, there will be constant change in the weight and influence of Russia, China and India in the world, which will affect their relations,” says Unnikrishnan. “China would prefer that Russia and India become more dependent on her but if that is the case, what it is doing in eastern Ladakh makes absolutely no sense.”
Indian diplomats and scholars don’t believe Putin has any influence over China’s Xi Jinping. He has a vision of his own, wants China to be No.1 in the world, and if not, No. 2 but wouldn’t want that to be widely known. This is something Putin is alive to. He knows China is too big for Russia: $11 trillion GDP vs $1.6 trillion. Russia is unique only because it has nuclear weapons.
But Russia needs India and China if its ambitions for a Greater Eurasia are to be realised. In Russia’s thinking, a China meshed into a broader multilateral Eurasian framework would also ensure its worst instincts are kept under control but this is not happening. Rather, as Raghavan notes, “the unwritten compact was Russia handling the political and security issues in Central Asia and China taking care of the economic side but China is muscling in everywhere, increasing its influence to Russia’s detriment.”
Raghavan believes “Russia-China differences are growing although these may not get reported here. China recently published some historical articles that talked about the Pamir being Chinese, and on the 160th anniversary of the founding of the city of Vladivostok, Chinese in social media reminded that it was part of Qing dynasty of China, taken away by the ‘unequal Treaty of Beijing’, and that the original Chinese name was Haishenwai.”
From a purely Indian point of view, these trends could be seen as propitious. But South Block is pushing ahead on other fronts with Russia.
“The energy relationship is doing well as we are buying more oil from Russia. We have contracted to buy up to two million tons this year alone,” Raghavan said, adding that it was part of India’s move to secure its supply of natural resources by diversifying from traditional suppliers in the volatile Persian Gulf. There could be a long term agreement with Russia for the supply of oil, which could be signed later this year.
Incidentally, India’s investment in Russia’s oil and gas fields in its Far East territories—already in the region of $10 billion—could expand. Prime Minister Modi had extended a $1 billion line of credit to Russia last year for projects in the Far East. It’s not clear what progress has been made, given the logistics of operating in places like Siberia where summers tend to be short, followed by long freezing winters.
“We cannot invest in the natural resources of France or the U.S.,” Raghavan notes, “so the choice really is between Russia and much more distant African or Latin American countries.”
Bilateral trade remains low at around $11 billion and the target of $30 billion in six years, set last year, does appear ambitious to some, more so given the pandemic. But there is a desire on both sides to broaden the trade basket beyond arms and energy and given that Putin is going to be around for many more years, India has backing and commitment at the highest level of the Kremlin.
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