NEW DELHI: When is an India-China thaw a thaw? More to the point, does a possible Chinese withdrawal from Patrolling Point 15 indicate (as some reports suggest) a thaw in the making? Or the fact that Foreign Minister Wang Yi gave an audience to newly appointed Indian ambassador Pradeep Singh Rawat last week (after keeping him waiting for three months)? Some would even point to Beijing’s reported moves to allow Indian students back to universities in China (although no movement has taken place so far).
Let’s look at Patrolling Point 15. Any Chinese withdrawal from there is simply a return to status quo, which India has been demanding. While it helps build confidence in India’s position (and some would even look forward to or expect similar Chinese moves on Depsang), the fact remains that the region stands heavily militarised and India now needs to station forces in strength to ensure no repeat performance by the PLA. Some would even say the Line of Actual Control mirrors the Line of Control (vis-a-vis Pakistan). So much for thaw.
Looking back, thaws have had very strong political underpinnings and content. Such as the late Rajiv Gandhi’s visit to China in December 1988 and meetings with top leaders including Deng Xiaoping. It broke the ice that had formed over the relationship since the 1962 war and set the stage for a series of agreements on ensuring peace and tranquility on the Line of Actual Control. Of course, all that is in tatters given what the Chinese did in Ladakh two years ago.
Perhaps the thaw would lie in the Chinese indicating their readiness to resolve the boundary dispute. But every statement from Beijing shows no such inclination. To quote Wang Yi during his meeting with Ambassador Rawat: “Persevere in putting the boundary issue in an appropriate place in bilateral relations and seeking solutions through dialogue and consultations.”
Some see covert signaling by China in not responding to Narendra Modi’s recent visit to Dharamsala, where the Dalai Lama resides. But that was a non-political event, with the PM at a conclave of state chief secretaries. There is nothing to suggest he had a meeting with the Dalai Lama. In fact, the only recorded conversation between the two was last year when Modi conveyed his best wishes on the spiritual leader’s 86th birthday.
Modi has kept his distance from the Dalai Lama, and though there have been reports of the U.S. seeking a more proactive stance on Tibet by India, nothing really has changed.
Recent events underscore the point that India and China remain at odds with each other. Beijing recently blocked a bid by India and the U.S. to designate Abdul Rehman Makki of the Lashkar-e-Toiba as a global terrorist under the Al-Qaeda Sanctions Committee of the UN Security Council. China’s strategic relationship with Pakistan endures and is being strengthened through the CPEC.
On a larger scale is Xi Jinping’s Global Security Initiative, announced at the Boao Forum two months ago. It was shorn of specifics and was ambiguous. It called for a “common, comprehensive, cooperative and sustainable” security framework, one that rejected “Cold War mentality and group politics”, also “hegemonism and power politics”.
These are standard Chinese terms that reflect its desire to carve out a security architecture under its wings thereby displacing the U.S. as the world’s numero uno. The Quad, where India is a member, is seen by Beijing as a U.S.-led group formed to counter China in the Indo-Pacific and therefore an adversary.
The BRICS summit also saw China actively pushing for the expansion of the group with the obvious intention of diluting Russia’s position and eroding India’s role. The latter two countries along with Brazil have managed to kick that can further down the road but expect China to persevere. The point is what some in India may see as a thaw is for China just a pause in its grand strategy. There is no thawing of the ice with India. Even if the PLA moves out of Patrolling Point 15 or begins to discuss Depsang, India will remain in its adversarial crosshairs.
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