The last obstacle to direct dialogue between the Afghan government and the Taliban were removed after the Loya Jirga called by President Ashraf Ghani, called for the release of ‘hard core’ Taliban prisoners. Their release had become a sticking point, the government insisting it would not let them go since they were responsible for the deaths of scores of civilians and Afghan security personnel. Now, it would seem, talks can convene in the next few days in Doha, Qatar, where the Taliban headquarters is located.
The decision raised more questions about what role the American would have played behind the scenes. Ever since the Feb. 29 deal between the US Government and the Taliban, it’s clear the Afghan government has little standing in Washington’s eyes. Washington seems eager to bring its troops back home from Afghanistan – regardless of the outcome of the intra-Afghan dialogue. A US Congressional report on June 25, 2020 underscored the rush to exit.
“The United States is to draw down its forces from 13,000 to 8,600 within 135 days (with proportionate decreases in allied force levels) and withdraw all of its forces within 14 months. Military officials stated in June 2020 that the withdrawal to 8,600 had been completed, nearly a month ahead of schedule,” the report stated. President Trump intends bringing back 4,000 more troops before the November elections.
“We acknowledge that the release of these prisoners is unpopular. But this difficult action will lead to an important result,” US Secretary of State Mike Pompeo said.
The pressure was on President Ghani to find a face-saving way out of the situation the Americans had put him in. Calling the Loya Jirga, and putting the onus of the release on this council of elders, got him out of that embarrassment and parliament’s opposition to any prisoner release. The Jirga is not an official decision-making body but the esteem that it is held in ensures that the president and parliament will accept the ruling. Afghan watchers says that the reason for which it was called was very surprising.
“The Loya Jirga is called for very extreme situations such as drafting the Constitution, yes and no to peace and reconciliation, but not usually for something specific like prisoner release. This is certainly unexpected and shows how desperate the US and Ghani are to get the prisoners released,” says former ambassador to Afghanistan Jayant Prasad.
Can talks with the Taliban resolve anything? The Taliban is not likely to settle for less than the whole of Afghanistan, which the Afghan government will not accept. The second problem is which Taliban are we talking about and are they able to speak for the whole body. The answer to that is no. The Taliban is a divided house with deputy leader Sirajuddin Haqqani, at odds with another deputy leader Mohammad Yaqoob. Then again the Taliban call for a ceasefire during Eid was not observed by other groups.
“If the Taliban starts acting independently Pakistan will put its money on other elements like the Daesh. During the three-day ceasefire, Daesh announced it was responsible for the jailbreak in Jalalabad. Taliban have no control there. Daesh is also trying to win over the Taliban cadre,” says Prasad.
Such problems have no immediate solution and vindicate India’s stand of not talking to the Taliban, though back-channel talks must always be a part of diplomatic efforts. The other problem for India is China and more specifically the BRI factor. The US cutback along with that of other foreign military forces has meant that civil reconstruction and rebuilding efforts in the country will slow down. Afghanistan will have used its own resources, but it is desperately short of cash. After reports of a potential $400 billion deal between Iran and China emerged, Kabul and Beijing are now talking. The virtual meeting on July 28 of China’s Foreign Minister Wang Yi and his counterparts from Nepal, China and Afghanistan, confirmed as much.
“The four countries should continue to promote the joint construction of the Belt and Road Initiative, explore ways to synergize the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC) and the Trans-Himalayan Multi-Dimensional Connectivity Network, support the extension of the CPEC to Afghanistan, and create a regional network of connectivity,” the statement from the Chinese foreign ministry said. Such a move could encircle and potentially isolate India.
So, what are New Delhi’s options? Right now, everything depends on how the intra-Afghan talks unfold, the outcome of which no one can predict with any certainty. The only thing India can do at this time is to work with whichever government is in power and encourage it to take independent decisions and policies. The other is to cut the apron strings that bind the Taliban to Pakistan, though how is unclear. Pakistan continues to be wedded to the Afghanistan peace process given the behind the scenes role it has played in the US-Taliban talks. Finally, India must continue to emphasise the role that Pakistan is playing in promoting terror and emphasise that militants in Afghanistan is a problem for the world.
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