NEW DELHI: The Indo-Pacific is seeing a new entrant: Germany! Why? Germany has no territorial interests in the Indo-Pacific that warrant protection. Nor does it have security treaties with any country in the Indo-Pacific. But Germany’s interest in joining the ‘Indo-Pacific club’ has been the subject of debate in Berlin for some time and the Coronavirus may have speeded things up. It bred skepticism and doubt not just in Germany but all of Europe, about China’s intentions and the need to chart the way forward in an economically vibrant region that is becoming the cockpit of geostrategic competition.
In Berlin, it began with the low key release of a document in September this year titled Policy Guidelines for the Indo-Pacific Region: Germany Europe Asia Shaping The 21st Century Together. The release of the document was timed to coincide with the departure of China’s foreign minister Wang Yi who on a five-nation swing through Europe also stopped over in Berlin. Germany’s Defence Minister Annegret-Kramp-Karrenbauer raised the prospect of sending a naval vessel into the Indo-Pacific from next year and suggested closer defence cooperation with countries like Australia.
“We intend to expand security and defence cooperation with those who share our values in the region, intensify our military contexts and promote dialogue on matters of security,” she said.
“Germany has always believed that engagement is much better than confrontation or containment when it comes to China. But the release of the policy document does tell us two things,” says Mohan Kumar, former Indian ambassador to France. “The first is that it was a signal to China and second the engagement policy that the Germans have believed in has now shifted towards ‘conditional engagement’. This does not mean they break from Beijing, but it does mean that a full engagement of the past will be over.”
That comes with risks. Currently, the German economy remains hugely dependent on China. Statistics show that 50 per cent of the EU’s exports to China come from Germany and given these concerns it is but natural that Berlin would insist on a ‘rules based international order’ to ensure that sea lanes in the South China, the Indian Ocean and the Pacific remain free of tension. This would explain why Germany is so keen to work with like-minded countries to secure its interests.
Economics aside, the German entry into the IOR though has larger geo-political ramifications. Experts believe that the foreign policy document is also a bid by an economically strong Berlin to assert itself onto the world stage, which it feels it can only do with like-minded partners. Gurjit Singh, former Indian ambassador to Germany, contends that Berlin which currently holds the EU presidency till December wants to set out an Indo-Pacific policy for the EU where France and Germany could emerge as the leaders.
“Germany is not out to antagonise China. Their warship is just there for patrolling, they are not part of larger organisations such as the Quad etc. But the defence minister’s recent speeches does convey to Germans at home and the rest of the world that they are willing to play a bigger role in world affairs,” he says.
China’s response has been interesting. Earlier, President Xi never met the EU troika and left it to prime minister Li Keqiang to do so. It is only recently that he has started to meet them. The decision to reach out at the highest level may have also stemmed from the mood in Europe, which has shifted negatively towards China. A recent poll conducted by the Financial Times, found that an average of 35 per cent of voters in Britain, France, Germany, Italy and Spain saw China as their ‘greatest threat.’
The German interest in the IOR has been noticed and welcomed by other nations, especially India. Foreign Secretary Harsh Shringla noted that Germany though “physically distant” was an “economic stakeholder” in the Indo-Pacific, and hoped that other European nations would soon follow
“Whatever the navigation map, the fact that the Indo-Pacific is the 21st century’s locus of political and security concerns and competition, of growth and development, and of technology incubation and innovation is indisputable. That is why a country like Germany, physically distant but an economic stakeholder in the Indo-Pacific, has released a strategy for the region. After France and the Netherlands, it is the third European country to do so. In India, we have noted with some satisfaction that our policy outlook has much in common with these documents,” Shringla said.
Mohan Kumar believes Germany’s entry will help India. “The IOR issue aside, a stronger Europe is in India’s best interest. The Joe Biden victory is likely to improve trans-Atlantic ties so instead of the current two poles in the world which is US and China, we could see the emergence of a third pole which is the EU with India and other middle powers possibly creating a fourth pole. This will create a much more balanced world which is in our interests.”
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