NEW DELHI: There’s a saying that the more things change, the more they remain the same! This is especially so in the case of Pakistan-occupied Kashmir (PoK) where elections to the legislative assembly will be held on Sunday. It is widely expected that Imran Khan’s Pakistan Tehreek-i-Insaf (PTI) will win since voters tend to believe that aligning with the party in power in Islamabad would better their lot.
That’s the odd part, for the incumbent party in PoK is not the PTI but Nawaz Sharif’s PML-N. Dinkar Srivastava, former diplomat who served in the Indian mission in Karachi in the 1990s, has in a recent book titled ‘Forgotten Kashmir: The Other Side of the Line of Control’ argued that Imran Khan did not throw out Raja Farooq, the Muslim League ‘prime minister’ even though there was enough precedence to do so. His reason was tensions with India. But that will change with elections to the territory.
Srivastava makes another point. As he told StratNews Global: “Elections have meaning when elected legislatures have power but here power is in Islamabad, so no matter who rises to the top of the political heap in PoK, s/he has no control over the PoK government.”
The PoK administration has no powers over taxation or raising revenue. Even if it had those powers, bereft of resources it is in no position to carry out any social or development programmes. The 13th amendment in 2018 also saw Islamabad assume all powers and functions of the PoK legislative council, reducing it to a purely advisory role.
A peculiar feature of the PoK elections is the provision for “refugee seats”. This is intended to provide voting rights for refugees from J&K, settled outside PoK. These seats are scattered making it easy for the federal government in Islamabad to interfere, manipulate and slant the results to ensure candidates of their choice get elected. There are 20 such seats, making up 40 per cent of the total seats (48) in the PoK legislature, thereby adding to Islamabad’s leverage.
Given that, whether by aligning with Islamabad PoK has been able to better the lot of the average citizen is uncertain. What’s clear come election day, is that the job of the intelligence agencies and army to ensure people vote for the PTI is clear cut. Reports from across the Line of Control say 40,000 security personnel, including 19,000 from the army, are on the job. They are expected to target “undesirable” and “pro-independence” candidates, the latter are in any case ruled out since the ‘Azad J&K Constitution Act’ bars individuals and parties that do not accept the ideology of the territory’s accession to Pakistan.
A case in point is the Jammu & Kashmir Liberation Front which has not been allowed to take part in PoK elections since 1975. This was despite the outfit’s role in initiating Pakistan’s campaign of terrorism across the Line of Control in the 1980s.
The slate is heavily weighted in favour of the “national parties” (Muslim League, PPP, PTI) although no less than 44 parties are registered with the PoK Election Commission. Parties with local roots have to ally with the national biggies if they wish to remain relevant.
Expect the army to intimidate prominent local leaders who could queer the local pitch. It tells us something about the army’s power that the PoK election commission has banned candidates on the campaign trail from prominently displaying photographs of senior army officers.
The Muslim League has fielded Maryam Nawaz, daughter of its supremo Nawaz Sharif, to lead the campaign in PoK. At rallies, she has focused on the problems of the common man, pointing to the “queues for flour and sugar” and contrasting it with the tenure of her party when there were “motorways and progress”. She labelled Imran Khan a thief, warning her constituents that he “neither has respect at home or abroad.”
How far all that name calling will get her should be known soon enough. If history is a guide, expect the PTI to sail through with the Muslim League and PPP chalking up enough seats to ensure the façade of democracy is maintained.
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