NEW DELHI: It’s been a little over one week since the resignation of Iran’s security chief Ali Shamkhani. He now sits in the Expediency Council and is Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei’s political adviser but it’s not clear why he was fired. Was it because his former deputy Alireza Akbari was tried, convicted of treason, and executed? Or was it because the government finally paid heed to accusations that his sons and son-in-law were corrupt? Or was he seen as soft on the hijab protestors?
The timing was also odd as Shamkhani had just been credited with playing an active role in the China-brokered Iran-Saudi deal this March.
Iran watchers in India say his replacement Ali Akbar Ahmadian, is the former chief of the paramilitary Revolutionary Guard’s strategic centre. He is seen as a diehard loyalist to the Supreme Leader, and a man who is implacably opposed to the JCPOA deal.
“Ahmadian represents the IRGC which sees no need to compromise with the US because a nuclear deal will cause the economy to open up which will in turn cause their businesses to suffer. This happened when the first JCPOA deal was signed,” said a diplomat in Delhi.
“This is because the IRGC officials have an import-export smuggling network where they use front companies owned by them through which they bring in foreign goods which they then sell at a high cost. Iran’s borders are controlled by the IRGC so they can do this freely. The US has tried but so far been largely unsuccessful in cracking down on them.”
The IRGC’s economic network explains the pulls and pushes of modern-day Iran and how this will influence its foreign policy going forward. As the diplomat points out, the Khatam-al Anbiya which is the largest construction company in Iran is IRGC owned and if the economy was to open up its business would suffer.
“The Chabahar port is being built by the Khatam-al Anbiya which has very close links with Chinese traders, which would be affected if foreign businesses would come in. They are also viscerally anti-west. Shamkhani wanted and tried to get a little bit of moderation in the ruling elite and that was one of the reasons why IRGC would have wanted him to go.”
What does a strengthened IRGC mean for Iran and its proxies? Given Ahmadian’s military background, will the Quds force become more active after Shamkhani’s departure? Will the Badr Brigade, the Hezbollah, and most crucially the Houthis become less accommodative? The questions are crucial for the region.
Analysts believe ties with China will strengthen as there is no incentive for the IRGC to do otherwise. In the case of Russia, Iran has no reason to back away as it has leveraged the war to get Sukhoi Su-35 fighters for its air force, while it has received much-needed revenue by selling its drones to Moscow.
There are also practical reasons why Iran will not give up on its relationship with Russia. “Moscow so far has played a key role in dealing with Iran’s periphery which abuts Central Asia. Iran is very worried about the activities of Azerbaijan, and it is a friend of Armenia. The Armenia-Azerbaijan conflict was handled by Russia which has recently taken a back seat. This allows inimical forces to come and sit across Iran’s border.”
Moderates within the country will be sidelined and analysts expect a tougher line against ongoing protests within the country. As Iran watchers point out, the hijab protests last September swelled into other issues that were causing mass anger, such as inflation and mass unemployment, which could backfire on the regime.
“The IRGC has so far told President Raisi that a heavier hand is needed against such protests in the country while moderates such as Shamkhani believed that the new generation could have a voice and more freedoms within reason. These moderates point to the example of Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman who has done exactly that. Who President Raisi and the Supreme Leader listen to remains to be seen.”
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