NEW DELHI: What’s the way forward for India and China in the new year? Indications from the 14th round of border talks between senior army officers of the two sides have been negative although there are plans to meet again. But even if China relents to some extent on India’s proposed path of disengagement, the sense one gets after talking to diplomats and senior army brass, is a broad continuation of efforts by the Chinese to constrain India diplomatically, and also militarily with pin-pricks and face-offs on the Line of Actual Control (LAC). Simply put, 2022 may be little different from 2021 and therefore the need for India to maintain its tough posture on the LAC.
Senior army officers who have served on the China border say India needs to augment its ability to keep the LAC under effective surveillance. China seems to be more sensitive about eastern Ladakh, and therefore the need for the Indian army to ensure an effective presence/posture there. India must also not let up in its efforts seeking clarification of the LAC as the first step towards a formal boundary resolution. This is all the more important given China’s moves to resolve its boundary issues with neighbours like Bhutan.
For now, China will still hope for better relations with India, but on its terms. The early phase of disengagement from Ladakh happened because it suited China, elsewhere it may take more time or may not happen at all.
Beijing is also increasing the stakes: witness the mammoth $209 billion defence budget it unveiled last year. Admittedly, this has less to do with India and more about the U.S., which is seen as China’s great rival. Nevertheless, as China ups its infrastructure and troop deployment across the LAC, India is forced to respond with “mirror deployment”, which means spending more money on logistics, troop shelters and emergency imports.
Militarily, China has no doubt that it outnumbers India comprehensively, that legacy equipment and shortages of everything from aircraft to missiles, artillery and battle ships remain a huge Indian constraint. Nevertheless, Chinese writings acknowledge that the Indian army is battle-hardened and will not succumb.
The Indian Air Force is also seen to have significant advantages, including the fact that it can import military aircraft or even drones from virtually anywhere in the world. It is also seen as having better trained pilots. Even the Indian Navy, smaller than the PLAN, has the advantage of being able to operate anywhere in the Indian Ocean. China is also concerned about India’s ability to bring into play the Sabang Port in Indonesia’s Aceh province, in the event of a military confrontation with China.
China knows that India’s major weakness remains the economy. Unless growth returns, the government will be constrained in its efforts to build capability across sectors, especially in the military and related technology domain. The pandemic has made matters more difficult for India.
Adding to China’s concern is the growing suspicion that India is gravitating increasingly into the U.S. camp. India joining the Quad was a jolt, raising questions about its vaunted strategic autonomy. At the same time, the Chinese believe India places more value on the Russia relationship. Also, Delhi has demonstrated its ability to balance off Washington-Moscow rivalries and benefit from both sides. The Modi government is seen as assertive and has refused to bend to Beijing’s admonishments or threats.
China is also bringing to bear the full force of Its propaganda to convince the world that its rise is unstoppable. The mandarins are aware that this is unlikely to sway opinion in the U.S. and other Western democracies, so the use of carrot and stick elsewhere. The carrot is visible in Beijing’s outreach to India’s neighbours (Nepal, Bangladesh, Sri Lanka, The Maldives) with offers of loans and infrastructure investment. The stick is visible in the trade measures enforced against Australia for moving away from China’s orbit.
With a key Communist Party congress due later this year that is expected to endorse President Xi Jinping for an unprecedented third term, Beijing may see virtue in playing up its tough guy image to the world.
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