NEW DELHI: Ukraine’s long-awaited counteroffensive against Russian forces appears to be close at hand with the deputy defence minister confirming “offensive action” in some areas. Just how many troops will be involved is not clear, speculation also about the strength of the foreign fighters in Ukrainian ranks. Kyiv estimated “20,000 people from 52 countries” last year, but it seems most of them have gone home leaving about 2000.
According to a study by the New York based, independent non-profit think tank the Soufan Centre, “Ukraine has mostly been left to: Belarussians, Georgians, Chechens, and foreign fighters from the immediate region, particularly those who speak Ukrainian, Russian, or both (although there are small numbers of Westerners in some of these ranks, including former special forces personnel).” It adds that “these regional foreign fighters are the most battle-hardened and have the most relevant combat experience,” something that is crucial in a war that has been unlike most other wars in the recent past.
The study which is titled Foreign Fighters, Volunteers, And Mercenaries: Non-State Actors And Narratives In Ukraine, states that while regional foreign fighters are on the front line nationals from the West are being deployed in the western part of the country, primarily in Lyiv which has not seen much action as much of the fighting has taken place in the eastern part of the country. It contends that this frustration may be one of the reasons why these fighters are returning along with the fact that many of them have “chafed at the idea of having to sign a contract,” which binds them to fight for the entire duration of the war.
While the Ukrainian side may have relatively little foreign fighters, Russia has actively relied on foreign fighters and more prominently paramilitary forces such as the Wagner Group to fight in Ukraine. The UK Ministry of Defence stated in an intelligence update in January this year that on “27 December 2022, the Russian Unified State Register showed that the proxy paramilitary Wagner Group had formally registered as a legal entity. The group declared their core activity as ‘management consultancy’; no mention was made of combat services.”
Western estimates suggest that currently 50,000 fighters belonging to Wagner are there in Ukraine and though the majority of the fighters killed so far are convicts and not battle-hardened veterans, the study contends that “90% of the Wagner Group’s manpower and resources have been moved from other theatres into Ukraine.” This it contends leaves serious doubt about Russia’s room for influence in other theatres where the group is active such as Syria, Libya, and Mali. Wagner’s absence from these countries could lead to “new power vacuums and opportunities for exploitation by terrorist groups or militias,” especially in Libya.
Geopolitics aside, the Ukraine conflict has also seen the rise of far-right groups such as the Russian Imperial Movement (RIM) which has been sanctioned by the US for being a terrorist group in 2020. The group is not actively fighting in Ukraine but according to Michael Carpenter, US ambassador to the OSCE Permanent Council, it has been training other far-right neo-Nazi groups. For instance, the German far-right group “Third Way and Young Nationalists have received training at Partizan’s camp near St. Petersburg,” while Neo-Nazi groups from other “European countries including Denmark and Slovakia, have also received paramilitary training in Russia.”
Like Wagner, the RIM is not new, and the Soufan study contends it has played a key role in “internationalising the violent far-right movement and extending the Kremlin’s narrative into extremist milieus” in the past as well. The group liaises with Wagner Group’s far-right arm Task Force Rusich (TFR) which is fighting in Ukraine. TFR recently asked members on its official Telegram channel for information on Poland, Estonia and Lithuania leading to fear within these countries that Russia may be willing to extend the war beyond Ukraine or even if Moscow does not approve, the Kremlin could lose control over these far-right groups involved in Ukraine. The study contends the fact that the Kremlin has been giving sanctuary to Rinaldo Nazzaro, the head of an American Neo-Nazi group called The Base, since 2020, suggests Moscow may be willing to give these groups more leeway in the conflict.
While Russia may be willing to indulge the far-right, Putin’s contention that Russia is looking to “denazify Ukraine” is not without merit. A crackdown by the Kremlin in 2016 caused a number of Russian far-right groups to flee to Ukraine. The most prominent among these groups are the Russian Volunteer Corps (RVC) headed by Denis Nikitin, a Russian who lives in Ukraine. Russian media reports say the group only accepts Russians into its group and its aim is to overthrow Putin. The RVC is not only competing for global influence with Russian far-right groups it has also engaged in direct clashes with Russian forces. The group’s ties with the Ukrainian army are unclear but what is clear is that whoever wins the conflict will have emboldened far-right fascist groups to contend with. This is a sobering thought for Russia, Ukraine and the West going forward.
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