NEW DELHI: The New Year could see diplomatic and political space opening up for India in Afghanistan, but much will depend on how deftly South Block plays its cards. A beginning has been made with the dispatch of over a ton of life-saving medicines to Kabul last month. More consignments are being sent with the Taliban responsible for its distribution.
A contract is likely to be signed soon for the shipment of 50,000 tons of wheat that will be loaded onto trucks at the India-Pakistan border in Attari-Wagah. The trucks are owned and operated by Afghan transporters, something South Block insisted upon. More will be sent as and when required. While Afghanistan’s other neighbours (Pakistan, Iran, Central Asian states) have also promised food aid, they have limited capacity. This is something the Taliban understands.
The key issue is when to reopen the embassy in Kabul. The Taliban is keen. The Haqqani Network, which oversees law and order in the capital, has reportedly promised full security for the embassy and staff. The issue of opening the consulates in Kandahar, Herat and Jalalabad will come up later. There is nothing from the Taliban to suggest these will not be allowed to reopen but for now, the focus is on the embassy.
This is not to overlook the many discussions within the ministry of external affairs and other government agencies over the wisdom of opening up to a terrorist group. Add to that the Haqqani Network, which is a part and parcel of the Taliban and therefore cannot be wished away. Their role as Pakistan’s terror instrument and complicity in two attacks on the Indian embassy leaves a bad taste in the mouth. But not dealing with them exposes India to the risk of being isolated from developments there, and the possibility exists that the Haqqanis could, in time, be “mainstreamed” given that the U.S. and other foreign forces are out of Afghanistan, and they have political power.
Not that they would be easily persuaded to cut the umbilical cord with Pakistan. The latter has sustained them for decades with that country’s army and intelligence apparatus providing sanctuary to their leaders. But the point is, after having achieved their goals in Afghanistan, what is the way forward? Internationally it is reviled, its leaders sanctioned and if they continue doing what they have been doing all these years, they could end up undermining their hold over Afghanistan.
Pakistan is the other problem. Already uncomfortable about India sending wheat to feed the Afghans, the generals in Rawalpindi will be watching the India-Taliban ballet with a wary eye. Every incremental Indian return to Afghanistan only underscores their own limitations, perhaps even inviting comparisons. It’s no secret that the Taliban want India to “complete all unfinished projects in Afghanistan” (including the dam over the Kabul river which potentially threatens Islamabad’s access to water).
But nobody underestimates Islamabad’s ability to play spoiler. “Like all good businessmen, one can count on them to come up with a ‘new product’ to keep the Taliban or some other group in line,” noted a diplomat. This could be ISIS-Khorasan, which is credited with a string of recent attacks on the Taliban, some of which have taken place in Nangarhar province bordering Pakistan (one can’t get more obvious than that).
If not ISIS-Khorasan, it could be some other militant group, the diplomat said, underscoring that on the ground, there would be hardly any difference between a Taliban cadre, a Haqqani fighter or somebody from the ISIS-Khorasan. Pakistan has over the years shown skill and guile in its dealings with these groups and countering that will be no mean challenge for India.
India’s advantage is that even the Taliban acknowledges that India’s aid projects have benefited the “Afghan people”, not former presidents or provincial leaders. And Indian projects have been spread through the country helping every ethnic group. Also interesting to note that over the last 20 years, India invested heavily in educating, skilling and empowering a new generation of young Afghans including women and girls (many of whom left the country in the wake of the Taliban takeover leaving the state with insufficient capacity to run the administration).
Clearly, 2022 could be a whole new ball game in Afghanistan.
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