NEW DELHI: Joe Biden has been hailed as the voice of reason especially as far as Iran is concerned. But the US president-elect raised eyebrows in a recent interview in the New York Times where he spoke in what seemed to be Trumpian language on Iran. While Biden did agree that the US would return to ‘follow-on negotiations’ once Tehran returned to the nuclear deal, he also pointed out that the US was also committed to agreements and negotiations that could ‘tighten and lengthen Iran’s nuclear constraints, as well as address the missile program.’ If Tehran did not comply, the US could always resort to snap-back sanctions the president-elect stated and vowed to take all measures necessary to curb Iran’s ‘malign’ activities in Lebanon, Iraq, Syria and Yemen.
Some Iran experts argue that Biden’s language was aimed for domestic consumption especially the far right and the Jewish lobby, but such tough talk was particularly ill-timed when tensions regarding the Persian nation are at an all-time high. Media leakage of President Trump’s options to strike Natanz, the city where Iran’s nuclear facilities are located, followed by the assassination of Iran’s top nuclear scientist Mohsen Fakhrizadeh, which was then followed by Tehran’s threat to execute an Iranian-Swedish scientist this week – though they have now granted a reprieve – has caused both the US, Israel and Iran to indulge in a deadly game of brinkmanship that could easily spiral out of control.
Former ambassador to Saudi Arabia and West Asia expert Talmiz Ahmad fears the worst, ‘Biden’s remarks are very ill-timed and could egg on the far right and Israel who want a short-sharp strike on Natanz. However, if they do so I don’t believe Iran can roll over and be quiet. This can even result in a strike on al-Udeid [a military base located southwest of Doha which houses over 10,000 US troops]. This is very worrying and could possibly even lead to war in West Asia.’
The situation is certainly not one that the US or any of its allies can take lightly. The strike on US troops in Qatar is one thing and even the UAE can get hurt here. But it’s not just Iran that the US would have to worry about. The ‘malign’ proxies will also come into play here. The Houthis in Yemen and the Shia militia in Iraq pose considerable threats to Gulf nations and particularly to the Kingdom. This was demonstrated in September last year where Houthi rebels said to be backed by Iran, fired rockets that hit two key oil installations in the Kingdom. Saudi Arabia and other Gulf nations can and should expect far worse should matters escalate towards a second strike.
But others feel that matters will not escalate so far and that saner heads will most probably prevail. Former ambassador and Iran expert KP Fabian believes that on the Iranian side, their continuation of ‘strategic patience’ will frustrate what he calls the ‘Trump-Netanyahu plan’ to escalate the situation. ‘There is no doubt that President [Hassan] Rouhani is under heavy pressure especially with the Majlis and the IRGC – Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps – demanding action for the assassination. There is also the pressure of presidential elections [on June 18, 2021]. But we must remember that Rouhani has the backing of the Supreme Leader [Ayatollah Khamenei] who has the last word in Iran. Everyone will follow his writ.’
While Fabian believes that while both Biden and Rouhani will move towards normalcy careful diplomacy will have to be exercised to ensure that this will be achieved. ‘Biden must say that the US will go back to a ‘rules-based international order’ which includes rejoining global institutions and honouring its international agreements under which the JCPOA can come. If he projects Iran as a standalone case and focuses too much on the ballistic missile reduction programme that will be a diplomatically foolish move and make moving forward much more difficult.’
A big key to moving forward is Europe. Though Europe did not raise any outcry when Iran’s nuclear scientist was killed, diplomacy is now at work with European leaders, Russia and China getting involved in bringing the situation back to normal. On December 16, France, Germany Russia, China and Iran will meet at the joint commission level in Vienna to discuss just how they can keep the deal alive. Followed up is a separate meeting by the E3 nations – Britain, France and Germany – where talks about the JCPOA and how sanctions are expected to be lifted are expected to be on the anvil. Such meetings will help build up an international consensus around Iran and could influence Biden who will certainly value his relations with Russia, China, and his trans-Atlantic neighbours, a lot more than Trump will.
The fallout of possible talks and normalcy with Iran has major implications for some prominent personalities in West Asia. AK Pasha, professor at the Centre for West Asian Studies, School of International Studies, JNU believes the two biggest losers will be Saudi Crown Prince Mohammad bin Salman and Benjamin Netanyahu, ‘Biden has made human rights a big issue and outside Trump and his inner circle the Crown Prince’s friends in Washington are becoming fewer and fewer. On Netanyahu’s side, Gantz is demanding elections and support from Trump will come to a sharp end under Biden. Both these men are likely to be more subdued under a Biden presidency and in Israel’s case we might even see a change of regime.’
There is certainly a long way to go before any of this happens and much of what a Biden presidency will still be determined by President Trump’s last days in office. The president continues to remain obsessed with Iran and the region and given his unpredictable nature there is no predicting what he will do next. The other worry point is the death anniversary of General Qassem Soleimani is on January 3 and a possible revenge strike against the US cannot be ruled out. Biden may soon be coming to office but till then Trump is very much in charge and anything can happen.
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