NEW DELHI: By any academic standard, this could be considered unusual. The Washington DC-based think tank, Atlantic Council, has published a strategy paper by an anonymous author on how to deal with China. The foreword describes the author as a “former senior government official with deep expertise and experience dealing with China”.
It describes the paper as an “extraordinary new strategy paper that offers one of the most insightful and rigorous examinations to date of Chinese geopolitical strategy and how an informed American strategy would address the challenges of China’s own strategic ambitions”.
The focus of the paper is China’s leader and his behaviour. “US strategy must remain laser focused on Xi Jinping, his inner circle and the Chinese political context in which they rule. Changing their decision making will require understanding, operating within and changing their political and strategic paradigm. All US policy aimed at altering China’s behavior should revolve around this fact or it is likely to prove ineffectual,” it says.
The executive summary of the paper warns that Xi has returned China to classical Marxism-Leninism and fostered a “quasi-Maoist personality cult, pursuing the systematic elimination of his political opponents. China’s market reforms have stalled and its private sector is under direct forms of party control. Unapologetically nationalist, Xi has used ethnonationalism to unite his country against any challenges to his authority, internal or external.”
The summary notes that Xi, in a departure from his “risk averse post-Mao predecessors”, intends to project China’s authoritarian political system, coercive foreign policy and military presence beyond China’s borders to the world at large. China is now a revisionist power and the US and its allies cannot ignore this fundamental shift in the strategic environment. “Xi presents a problem for the whole of the democratic world.”
The US has not had an effective China strategy since the strategic objective was not clearly understood. Any future US strategy also cannot presume the ultimate collapse of the Chinese system (unlike that of the erstwhile USSR) nor work for the overthrow of the Communist Party. That would enable Xi to rally the elite and the public to his defence.
The way forward must take into account the “political reality” that the Communist Party is “significantly divided on Xi’s leadership and his vast ambitions.” Senior leaders are troubled by his policy direction and his endless demands for absolute loyalty. They fear for their lives and the future livelihoods of their families. “Of particular toxicity… are reports unearthed by the international media of the wealth amassed by Xi’s family members and members of his political inner circle despite the vigour with which Xi has conducted the anti-corruption campaign.”
Herein lies the objective for the US: to ensure that China returns to its “pre-Xi strategic status quo.” This takes into account the fact that leaders before Xi worked with the US and joined the international order not to remake it in China’s image. So the US must differentiate not only between the Communist Party and the Chinese people, but also between the government and party elite, and between the party elite and Xi. The aim would be to change their behaviour, this would require understanding how they operate within, and the effort should be long term.
The US must also focus on those areas which Xi has targeted. Thus:
- The US must retain its economic and technological superiority and protect the global status of the US dollar
- Maintain overwhelming conventional military deterrence and prevent any shift in the strategic balance
- Prevent any Chinese territorial expansion especially the forcible reunification with Taiwan
- Consolidate and expand alliances and partnerships and defend the rules-based international order
As for dealing with China, a seven-point strategy is laid out which should be driven by a presidential directive and led by the national security adviser with bipartisan political consensus across administrations:
- The US must rebuild its economic, technological, military and human capital underpinnings of its long term national power
- Agree on a set of “red lines” that China should be deterred from crossing
- Agree on major national security interests that if violated by China will trigger a range of retaliatory actions
- Identify less important areas where the full force of US strategic competition can be deployed against China
- Define those areas where US cooperation with China is in its interests such as climate change, etc.
- Prosecute a full scale ideological battle against China’s authoritarian state capitalist model
- Work with major Asian and European treaty allies to ensure they are on board
The paper underscores that first the US must put its economic and institutional house in order and correct weaknesses. All action must be coordinated with allies and for that the US must address their political and economic needs. Russia’s drift towards China must be addressed, underscoring that “dividing Russia from China in the future” is critical. Important to note that the Chinese are realists, respecting strength and consistency, contemptuous of weakness and vacillation. For now, China would do everything to avoid a military confrontation with the US but this could change if the military balance tilts in its favour over the next decade. Military defeat apart, a failing economy is the other factor that could trigger Xi’s fall from grace.
US red lines should be clearly communicated to China. These would include any nuclear, chemical or biological weapons action by China or its allies such as North Korea; any Chinese attack on Taiwan or its offshore islands including an economic blockade or cyberattack; any attack on Japanese forces defending the Senkaku islands and exclusive economic zone; any hostile Chinese military action in the South China Sea against neighbours or blocking freedom of navigation operations by the US and partner navies and any attack on US treaty allies.
The US should also unambiguously communicate its intention to inflict pain if China fails to take part in a defined time frame, in talks for reducing strategic weapons; if it attacks US space assets or carries out a cyber attack on US government or allied infrastructure; any large scale military belligerence against the US treaty partners or “other critical strategic partners including India”; or any act of genocide against any group in China.
In pursuit of these objectives, the US must sustain current force levels in the Indo-Pacific, formalize the Quadrilateral Security Dialogue and induce India to abandon its reservations against any such arrangement. It must help Japan and South Korea normalize their relations, promote trade and investment with Southeast Asia including allies like Thailand and the Philippines and integrate the US, Mexican and Canadian economies into a seamless 500 million strong market to underpin economic strength vis a vis China. The US must re-negotiate and join the Transpacific Partnership, reform the World Trade Organisation, and work with the World Bank to invest in regional banks to ensure there is a credible alternative to China’s BRI.
Last word: The paper notes that such a strategy if followed through could see the Chinese Communist Party, in time, revert to a more traditional form of leadership, one that does not seek to overturn the liberal international order. The fact is Xi’s leadership has already provoked strong reactions against him and there is reason to hope that the Chinese people will not see their authoritarian past and current as the inevitable future.
[/vc_column][/vc_row][/tdc_zone]
